Surkov may leave Putin advisor position, report says

Vladislav Surkov, the top advisor to Russian President
Putin on Ukrainian affairs and the war in Donbas, may leave his position as a
result of reshuffling in the Presidential Administration, the rbc.ru news site
reported on May 11, citing its anonymous sources close to the Kremlin. “I don’t
know how and when a decision will be made, but I have the feeling that
Vladislav Yuryevich will not continue to work in his current capacity,” said a
political analyst, Aleksey Chesnakov, that rbc.ru identified as being close to
Surkov. Among the reasons cited for his possible departure were his strategy in
Ukraine, “which has hit a dead end,” the report said. Surkov has served as
deputy, and first deputy presidential administration head, for 12 years.

Zenon Zawada: More than
anyone, Surkov is responsible for getting Putin into this current mess in which
Russia is increasingly isolated from the global community. History has yet to
decide whether his Ukraine strategy will be regarded as a success for Russia,
but the cost has been enormous already. So it comes as no surprise that Surkov
might leave Putin’s inner circle given that Russia can’t afford to maintain its
current strategy in the mid-term, as mounting sanctions will inflict further
damage to the already suffering economy.

The big questions if Surkov leaves are (1) what
will Russia’s new approach with Ukraine be and (2) who will Putin appoint to
direct it. The two basic approaches for Russia to choose from are expanded war
with the West, or what we would deem as a soft capitulation to the West. The
type of person that Putin appoints to replace Surkov, and their career
background in particular, should give an indication of Putin’s intended
approach. Someone with a military background will be a clear indication that
the Kremlin is moving towards expanded warfare.