Three parliamentary factions set Normandy “red lines” for Zelensky

Three parliamentary
factions presented a joint statement on Dec. 3 setting five “red lines” for
Ukrainian President Zelensky not to cross at the Normandy Format summit to
occur on Dec. 9 in Paris. They are making no compromises on Ukraine’s unitary
state and rejecting any federalization; no compromises on Ukraine’s
Euro-Atlantic integration; no political action or elections in Donbas until
occupying forces are withdrawn and security is restored; no compromise on
Crimea’s return to Ukraine; and no dropping of court cases against the Russian
government.

The statement makes
two demands: ensuring the principle of Security First, including an
all-encompassing ceasefire, and the removal of Russian forces and arms from
Ukrainian territory; and the return of control of the Russian-Ukrainian border
in Donbas to Ukraine. The statement was signed by former President Petro
Poroshenko, an MP and founder of the European Solidarity party; former PM Yulia
Tymoshenko, the head of the Fatherland parliamentary faction; and Sviatoslav
Vakarchuk, an MP and founder of the Voice party.

Ukrainian Foreign
Minister Vadym Prystaiko repeated the president’s own set of “red lines” when
meeting with journalists in London on Dec. 3, as reported by the
eurointegration.com.ua news site. These include no amendments to the
Constitution (to create autonomous republics), no influence on Ukraine’s
foreign policy priorities (Euro-Atlantic integration), Ukrainian control of the
Russian-Ukrainian border (in occupied Donbas), and the removal of armed forces
and illegal formations ahead of any elections, he said. “Various options can be
discussed – joint monitoring with the OSCE, for example – but control of the
border has to happen regardless,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: No major agreement with Russian
President Putin will be possible without crossing some of these red lines.
Meanwhile, political game theory dictates that Zelensky needs to secure some
deal with Putin, or lose political support from his core electorate. We view
the key to Zelensky’s political success in Paris (not necessarily to Ukraine’s
advantage) will be to reach a deal that blurs some red lines in a vague way
that can be rationalized to the public. Prystaiko hinted as much, stating
control of the Russian-Ukrainian border could be assumed by the OSCE rather
than by the Ukrainian government exclusively.

We expect a series of gray agreements, characterized by vague conditions
and numerous qualifiers, to emerge from the Normandy Format summit. In this
way, Zelensky saves face before his electorate while Putin lays the groundwork
for further discrediting Ukraine, and especially Zelensky.