29 September 2014
Only three political parties would exceed a five percent threshold and qualify for the Ukrainian parliament if the election were held today, according to a poll conducted by the Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Fund and the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. The Petro Poroshenko Bloc has 27 percent support of those who declared their intention to vote, Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party has six percent and the Fatherland party has 5.5 percent.
Nearly 33 percent of voters are undecided for which candidates they will vote for in the Oct. 26 early parliamentary vote, according to the poll results released on Sept. 26. More than 46 percent of those polled will certainly attend elections while another 19 percent are likely to do so. The poll was conducted of 2,035 respondents between Sept. 12 and 21 in all regions of Ukraine except Crimea and Luhansk.
Zenon Zawada: What’s positive about this poll is that no pro-Russian forces will qualify for parliament for the first time in Ukraine’s history. All the qualifying parties have firm pro-Western positions. What’s negative is that populist parties are being favored over parties with a more realistic commitment to structural and dramatic reforms, such as the Civic Position (4.6 percent support) and Self-Reliance (1.7 percent) parties.
We don’t expect many constructive policies from the Radical Party or Fatherland, which have a history on speculating on populist measures that have little long-term prospects. They will also be in opposition to the Poroshenko Bloc, which has a broad mix of activists, career politicians, business interests and oligarch agents. The prospects for reform with this party are also limited.
We think it’s possible more parties will qualify, given that a third of the electorate is undecided. But it’s already clear that they won’t accomplish the necessary tectonic changes without an active civic sector and activists applying pressure for reforms.