Trump questions NATO security guarantees for its member-states

Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s nominee for U.S. president, said in a New York Times interview on July 20 that he would have to consider whether the Baltic states “have fulfilled their obligations” to NATO before offering defense if they’re attacked by the Russian Federation. The statement called into question NATO’s policy of automatically extending security guarantees to its member-states. In the interview, Trump said he would force U.S. allies to shoulder defense costs that the U.S. has borne for decades, cancel longstanding treaties he views as unfavorable and redefine what it means to be a partner of the U.S., the New York Times reported.

In response to these comments, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assured NATO member-states that the U.S. is fully committed to defending them, as reported on July 21 by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. During a Washington press conference, he pointed to a NATO statute that establishes that an attack on any NATO member-state will be considered an attack on all NATO members.

Zenon Zawada: If Trump would hesitate to offer the Baltic states an automatic defense against Russia, then it’s certain he would offer no military aid should Russia launch a deeper invasion into Ukraine. Such statements by Trump make Russian President Vladimir Putin feel very comfortable.

In our view, as long as the West doesn’t escalate the conflict (by positioning missiles in Ukraine, for example), we don’t expect Russia to invade further into Ukraine, or Europe for that matter, beyond the current bounds of occupied Donbas.