28 December 2011
The Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc overtook the Party of Regions, with 15.8% support vs. 13.9%, as the top political party in Ukraine, according to results of a survey from the respected Razumkov Center yesterday. Following the top two were Front of Changes (9.6%), Communist Party (5.3%), and Udar Party (5.1%). Tymoshenko was also the top polling candidate for president with 16.3% support, ahead of Viktor Yanukovych (13.3%) and Arseniy Yatseniuk (10.7%). The survey of 2,008 Ukrainians was conducted December 9-16; margin of error was 2.3 pp. Brad Wells: Importantly, all major opposition parties have gained ground in the polls since last year, while the Party of Regions and allied Strong Ukraine have faltered. We see several policy important implications from opinion poll trends: (1) it increases the chances the government will shy away from important but controversial economic reforms such as a steep household gas tariff hike (as requested by the IMF), (2) it is forcing the government to think twice about what it gives up to Russia in exchange for a gas discount, and (3) it will likely result in more populist decisions in the coming months (such as increasing wages and social benefits).
Parliamentary & presidential election opinion poll results
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Parliament election 12/2011 10/2010 Chg
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Tymoshenko Bloc 15.8 12.4 +3.4 pp
Party of Regions 13.9 26.7 -12.8 pp
Front of Changes 9.6 5.0 +4.6 pp
Communists 5.3 3.2 +3.1 pp
Udar 5.1 – +5.1 pp
Strong Ukraine 3.6 11.1 -7.5 pp
Svoboda 3.6 2.6 +1.0 pp
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Presidential election 12/2011 05/2011 Chg
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Yulia Tymoshenko 16.3 14.4 +1.9 pp
Viktor Yanukovych 13.3 17.2 -3.9 pp
Arseniy Yatseniuk 10.7 8.2 +2.5 pp
Vitaliy Klitchko 4.8 – +4.8 pp
Petro Symonenko 4.8 2.4 +2.4 pp
Sergiy Tigipko 4.4 5.2 -0.8 pp
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Source: Razumkov Center