Tymoshenko maintains wide lead in presidential race, poll says

Former prime minister and political prisoner Yulia
Tymoshenko has 21.2% support among decided voters if presidential elections
were held today, according to a poll released on Dec. 11 by the Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology. Comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy has 14.6% and
President Poroshenko has 11.6%, according to the poll, which was conducted
between Nov. 23 and Dec. 3 involving 2,000 respondents.

Zenon Zawada: If
Tymoshenko maintains her wide lead in the polls leading up to election day on
March 31 (and in the exit polls on election day itself), she will have
legitimate grounds for her inevitable election-rigging claims in the
second-round runoff (scheduled for April 21), in which we expect she will
likely face off against Poroshenko.

As for Zelenskiy, he has yet to make any public
appearances or take any positions. We expect his poll ratings will decline as
election day draws closer and voters sober up to the possibility of Zelenskiy
leading Ukraine’s defense against one of the world’s largest militaries.
Meanwhile, a candidacy by Sviatoslav Vakarchuk would shake up the presidential
race, drawing a significant number of votes from pro-Western Ukrainians. He is
likely to more actively promote Western policies, especially those recommended
by the U.S., which have been resisted by Poroshenko.

In all, the presidential race will be intensely
competitive, with plenty of accusations of illegal tactics and incidents of
violence. And the poll figures could change significantly in the next three
months, especially with the wild card candidacies of Zelenskiy and Vakarchuk.