Tymoshenko most popular presidential candidate, poll reveals

Former prime minister and political prisoner Yulia
Tymoshenko has the most support as a presidential candidate, according to a
poll released on Aug. 15 by the Social Monitoring Center and the Ukrainian Institute
for Social Research. Tymoshenko, who has a populist pro-EU platform, has 11.2%
support for president, while President Petro Poroshenko has 9.5%. Yuriy Boyko,
the head of the Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc, earned 7.5% support, while
Vadym Rabinovych, the head of the Russian-oriented For Life party, also has
7.5% support. Oleh Lyashko, the leader of the populist Radical Party, has 6.7%
support, while Anatoliy Grytsenko, the leader of the reforms-oriented pro-EU
Civic Plaform, has 5.1%. The poll was conducted of 2,030 respondents between
July 20 and 29.

Zenon Zawada: This poll
confirms that Ukrainians are widely dissatisfied with Poroshenko’s leadership
and are willing to consider alternatives. Indeed the presidential field is wide
open, which is why Poroshenko saw the need in recent months to sabotage the
possible candidacies of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Lviv
Mayor Andriy Sadovyi.

A particularly disturbing trend is the relative
strength of the Russian-oriented parties, the Opposition Bloc and For Life. If
a parliament were to be formed based on these numbers (in a proportional
system), the Russian-oriented parties would earn about 32% of the seats, which
is just as much as the Party of Regions had in the 2012 elections.

This is why we think the Russian leadership is looking
forward to the 2019 elections as a means of regaining influence over Ukraine.
In light of this, it’s also worth considering that Tymoshenko has flirted
politically with Russian President Putin in the past.