Tymoshenko quits coalition, to try another PM dismissal vote

The Head of the Fatherland faction in the Ukrainian parliament, Yulia Tymoshenko, is going to initiate another attempt to dismiss PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk, she told journalists on Feb. 17. “By the end of this week, our faction will submit a draft resolution to parliament to vote on dismissal of the prime minister, which will lead to dismissal of the entire Cabinet”, she said.

Earlier the same day, the Fatherland faction (consisting of 19 MPs) exited the parliamentary coalition. With this exit, the coalition consists of three factions of 243 MPs, with a required minimum of 226. Another small coalition faction, Self-Reliance (26 MPs), is going to announce whether it is leaving the coalition on Feb. 18. 

Recall, the Ukrainian parliament tried to dismiss the Cabinet with a vote of no-confidence on Feb. 16, but failed to do so, because of the last minute refusal of some pro-president MPs to support the resolution. The parliament cannot attempt another no-confidence vote until September. 

Alexander Paraschiy: Tymoshenko’s initiative to dismiss Yatsenyuk is impossible to realize, as far as we understand Ukrainian legislation. After the failed vote for no-confidence, there are only three ways Yatsenyuk could leave his position soon: his personal resignation request (approved by the parliament), his loss of ability to work due to illness, or his death. None of these are options are probable.

One thing that could force the government to quit in the next six months is a coalition split. The split will depend largely on the position of the Self-Reliance faction. If the coalition fails and no new coalition is formed within one month, the president will have the right to dismiss the parliament and call early parliamentary elections. However, the president should not necessarily use his right, and we believe he won’t.  As we commented yesterday, Petro Poroshenko needs Yatsenyuk as prime minister, who poses no threat to his authority and shares the same penchant for shady schemes. Moreover, there is a high probability that the coalition will survive even in the event of the exit of the Self-Reliance faction – yesterday Yatsenyuk reported that it has held negotiations on a coalition with another small faction, led by Oleh Lyasko (21 MPs). Lyashko’s faction used to be a member of the current coalition (exited in September 2015).   

Meanwhile, we expect that Yatsenyuk will survive, and so will the coalition, but some reshuffling in the Cabinet will happen very soon. Hopefully, this reshuffling will strengthen the government by improving its capacity to enact reforms and cooperate successfully with parliament. At the same time, we do not rule out surprises in the coming days that will reshape the entire government.