Tymoshenko trial resumes, verdict could come as soon as today

The trial of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who faces up to a seven-years in prison for negotiating 2009 gas contracts with Russia that the current government views as unfavorable, is due to resume this morning at 9:00 local time. After both the prosecution and defense presented closing statements, the trial was adjourned on Friday, September 30 for 11 days; Tymoshenko has been in jail pending the outcome of the trial since August 5. Brad Wells: A verdict could be announced as soon as today, with a guilty verdict the odds-on most likely outcome, in our view. The trial has seen two breaks in the last two months, during which time President Viktor Yanukovych has addressed the UN General Assembly (Sept. 21) and EU Eastern Partnership Summit (Sept. 29-30), and sat down with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (Sept. 24). Simply put, Ukrainian politicians do not appear to be taking international pressure (including from the U.S., E.U. and Russia) to release Tymoshenko and threats of damaged diplomatic relations seriously. At the same time, we believe the government does not view opposition political parties as capable of mounting a sufficiently large and lengthy protest against a conviction. Moreover, leading Ukrainian officials (including Yanukovych and Prime Minister Mykola Azarov) and prosecutors have invested a tremendous amount of political capital already on the case and will not be able to settle for anything less than a guilty verdict at this point. At this point, a guilty verdict would perhaps have the biggest negative implication on ongoing talks with the European Union on an Association Agreement, which both sides have said they expect to sign at a summit in December. EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Vice President of the European Commission Catherine Ashton said yesterday the EU would take Tymoshenko’s case into consideration in decisions on the Association Agreement.