Tymoshenko’s fate to be decided by October 21, Yanukovych says

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych assured a gathering of eastern European presidents in New York that a decision on the fate of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko will be made public by October 21, when the EU Foreign Affairs Council will decide on whether to enter into the Association Agreement with the Ukrainian government, reported the Presidential Administration website. The Ukrainian government will also resolve several other issues that remain in regards to the Association Agreement, including legislation pertaining to the state prosecution and the election code of laws.

Allowing Tymoshenko to seek medical treatment abroad, as demanded by EU leaders, will require new legislation and international agreements, said Inna Bohoslovska, an MP of the ruling Party of Regions. “Currently our criminal code doesn’t have a procedure such as release for medical treatment abroad,” told a Ukrainian television network on September 23. “Therefore we need to approve amendments in the amendable legislation, and secondly, we will need to sign bilateral agreements after the legislative changes.” She said these measures can be taken by October 15, when former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and former European Parliament Chair Pat Cox are scheduled to report to the European Parliament on whether they achieved an agreement with Yanukovych to arrange for Tymoshenko’s release.

In response, Tymoshenko’s lead defense attorney Serhiy Vlasenko said no new legislation is needed for her to be released for medical treatment abroad and the current legislation is adequate. “Without exception, all citizens have the right to seek treatment abroad if domestic institutions can’t offer them this opportunity,” he said, as reported by the Ukrayinska Pravda website. “State organs are supposed to support the departure of such citizens.” In holding out on his decision, Yanukovych is threatening Ukraine’s chances for signing the Association Agreement, Vlasenko said, adding that the Cox-Kwasniewski mission warned him that “fulfilling that criteria at the last minute before the summit will be unacceptable.”

Of 32 Ukrainian experts, only two believe that the EU will decide not to the sign the Association Agreement with Ukraine, according to a poll released on September 24 by the Democratic Initiatives Fund. The remaining necessary steps that Ukraine needs to take before the November 28-29 summit in Vilnius consist of arranging for Tymoshenko’s release, amending election laws and approving an Election Code, and implementing reforms to the judiciary, law enforcement and state prosecution.

Zenon Zawada: Yanukovych’s assurance of a decision by October 21 is nothing to get excited about since he has misled EU leaders in the past about his intentions regarding Tymoshenko. He is indeed testing the patience of EU leaders by waiting until the last minute to decide on Tymoshenko’s release. At the same time, he understands the EU has a lot at stake if it doesn’t sign the agreement, namely the failure of its Eastern Partnership program geared towards post-Soviet states. (Armenia announced this month it would opt for the Customs Union instead.)

We share the confidence of Ukraine’s 30 political experts that an arrangement will be reached for the agreement to be signed, which will hold enormous symbolic value, if nothing else. Moreover, the EU leadership will have a chance to pull out of the Association Agreement during the ratification process that will follow. We don’t rule out that Yanukovych will decline to release Tymoshenko, prompting a rejection by the EU Foreign Affairs Council. But we have confidence that Kwasniewski (and Cox) will be able to reach at least a behind-the-scenes compromise, similar to what he helped to broker during the standoff in the Orange revolts in the winter of 2004.