Tymoshenko’s release assures Ukraine-EU Association, Kwasniewski says

The release of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko from prison will ensure that “the doors to association will be wide open” between the EU and Ukraine, former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said during the Yalta European Strategy (YES) conference, as reported by the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper on September 23.

Her imprisonment remains the biggest hurdle for signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, he said, as reported by the Rzeczpospolita newspaper on September 20. Kwasniewski has been engaged in a diplomatic mission with former European Parliament Chair Pat Cox since June 2012 to convince Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to arrange for Tymoshenko’s release. They’re supposed to report on their mission results to the European Parliament on October 15.

Tymoshenko doesn’t trust Ukrainian medical institutions and needs to gain medical treatment abroad, Kwasniewski said in his concluding remarks to the YES summit on September 22. “Tymoshenko is ill,” he said. “She needs an operation, and afterwards therapy, and afterwards rehabilitation.” He added, “We hope Ukraine’s government will accept that proposal, which was already prepared many months ago.”

EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule told YES on September 20 that he is confident that the Cox-Kwasniewski mission will remain the main obstacle to signing the pact and will achieve a compromise on Tymoshenko, the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper reported. He praised Ukraine’s government, particularly the parliament, for approving the legislation necessary for the agreement. “We are on a good path,” he told YES. “The progress that was made in the last months was unprecedented. It’s not only my opinion, but the opinion of the Venice Commission, the European Commission.”

President Yanukovych told YES that only the Ukrainian courts, or a decision reached by Tymoshenko herself, could resolve her fate. “We still have time and we will act in according to the plan to work,” he said on September 20. The answer is supposed to be in the field that would allow us to reach a decision in the legal realm.”

Zenon Zawada: All the reports from Yalta confirm what we’ve been saying for weeks: the Association Agreement’s signing hinges on Tymoshenko’s release. They also confirmed that any agreement on Tymoshenko would emerge only at the last minute, when the time will expire for saber-rattling and bluffing on both sides.

We believe the main rift in the negotiations is Yanukovych’s insistence that Tymoshenko not be allowed to participate in Ukrainian politics following her release, particularly in the 2015 presidential election. Meanwhile, the EU leadership and Tymoshenko herself won’t compromise on that demand, or at least not yet.

We expect a last-minute compromise that will enable the signing of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, but not necessarily its ratification. We believe it’s possible that the agreement will be signed with Tymoshenko remaining in prison, pending an arrangement to be implemented afterwards.