U.S. congressmen seek further sanctions against Russia, resist reversal

U.S. Senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham and Amy Klobuchar called for strengthening sanctions on the Russian banking and energy sectors on Jan. 1 in Tbilisi, Georgia after a Dec. 30 visit to Ukrainian territory near the Donbas war zone. These sanctions should hurt Russian President Putin personally for the crimes he’s responsible for, Graham said. McCain identified these crimes as hacking into the electronic resources of the Democratic Party.

A vigorous response from the U.S. Congress awaits U.S. President-elect Donald Trump should he attempt to reverse the Obama administration’s sanctions against Russia, U.S. Representative Adam Schiff told ABC News on Jan. 1. The U.S. Congress may even vote to strengthen sanctions, he said. “You’re going to see Democrats, and Republicans like McCain and Graham, and others come together with a strong sanctions package because frankly, even though what the administration did was more than symbolic – it was very meaningful – it is not enough to deter Russia,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: We expect strong resistance in the U.S. Congress to any possible attempts by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to relax sanctions against Russia this year. But it’s important to distinguish those sanctions related to the alleged cyberattacks of the Democratic Party and those related to Ukraine. So far, the EU hasn’t imposed any sanctions related to the hacking scandal.

So with the expected election gains of Russia-friendly politicians in Europe (in the Netherlands and France, at minimum), we think the first set of Ukraine-related sanctions could be relaxed as early as the second half of this year. If the momentum continues, more Ukraine-related sanctions could be relaxed in 2018 as Trump tries to secure some peace deal with Russia, with possibly more backing from the U.S. Congress.

It will be revealing to see whether Trump decides to challenge the U.S. Congress in his first months in office and attempt to reverse the hacking-related sanctions, which would create immediate tensions. He might reserve such a maneuver for later in his term, depending on the standing of his relations with the U.S. Congress in his first months.