U.S. peacekeeping proposals in Donbas “entirely realistic,” Surkov says

U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker could not
agree upon a single position on the Donbas reintegration legislation with his Russian
counterpart Vladislav Surkov, reported on Jan. 26 in the Interfax news agency,
citing anonymous sources. “Real decisions based on the meeting’s results
haven’t been made,” said one source, commenting on their Jan. 26 meeting in
Dubai.

At the same time, Surkov reportedly said the latest
U.S. proposals on a possible UN peacekeeping mission are entirely realistic, as
reported by the TASS news agency. The U.S. brought much more constructive
proposals, the main one being “quite a detailed plan of introducing the mission
in phases in relation to fulfilling the political points of the Minsk
agreements,” Surkov said, as reported by TASS. “Unlike the ‘Belgrade package,’
the ‘Dubai package’ of American proposals appears entirely realistic on the
whole, at least at first glance,” Surkov said. As for the conflict’s
humanitarian issues, the positions of the U.S. and Russia “fully coincide,” he
said.

The U.S. Treasury Department expanded its list of
sanctions on Jan. 26 to include 21 individuals and 12 organizations that are
based in both Russia and Ukraine. Many of them are serving in the governments
of the occupied districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Among the
companies targeted is engineering holding Power Machines, which is the key
Russian partner for Siemens. The U.S. planning to name more individuals and
organizations to target with sanctions, said Daniel Fried, a U.S. diplomat who
led the effort in determining Ukraine-related sanctions under the Obama
administration, in an interview published by RFE/RL on Jan. 28. The list won’t
have legal consequences, but it has the appearance as a list of targets of
future potential sanctions, he said. That certainly means that business and
banks will keep their distance from those named, he said.

Ukraine’s National Guard and National Police should be
ready to serve in Donbas and Crimea once they are freed from occupation,
Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said on Jan. 27, as reported by the
Interfax-Ukraine news agency. “The period of fake protests, which distract the
public’s attention, will pass and the phase of our life will arrive when we’ll
have to enter the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and Crimea, when they are freed
from occupation,” he said. “To liberate and defend occupied territories is very
hard work and we did this already when we liberated the territories of the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions. We need to prepare for this again.”

Zenon Zawada: By saying
the latest U.S. peacekeeping proposal is “entirely realistic,” the Kremlin is
keeping its options open in dealing with its problem of Western-imposed
sanctions. Yet we believe there is still too much distrust by the Russians to
agree to any plan to introduce UN peacekeepers to Donbas, particularly after
such comments offered by Interior Minister Avakov. It’s precisely such a
scenario, in which the UN would serve as a cover or distraction for a Ukrainian
offensive in Donbas, that the Russians fear most. We see the Russians agreeing
to a UN peacekeeping mission only when all its other options in maintaining
their influence in Ukraine have run out, which won’t be until after the 2019
elections in Ukraine.

Avakov’s comments about Ukrainian forces being
deployed to the freed territories of Donbas and Crimea are strange considering
that a Ukrainian military offensive is not an option, at this point. And while
we see Russia withdrawing from Donbas as a possibility (though no sooner than
2019), we are confident that Russia will not voluntary withdraw its presence
from Crimea. Such comments don’t help the Western-led effort to establish trust
with the Russians and get them to agree to fulfill the Minsk Accords.