Udar pulls close to Fatherland party in latest poll

Ukraine’s two major opposition parties are neck-and-neck according to a new opinion poll released by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, one of the most respected polling centers in Ukraine. Udar (led by Vitaliy Klitschko) was just one percentage point ahead of Fatherland (led by Arseniy Yatseniuk), 14% to 13%. Overall, opposition forces had an aggregate 27% of support from people who intended to vote, while pro-presidential forces drew 31%.

Political party support
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Party                                May    Sept
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Party of Regions (Azarov)   28%  22%
Udar (Klitschko)                16%  14%
Fatherland (Yatseniuk)       26%  13%
Communists (Symonenko) 10%   9%
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Total pro-presidential        41%  31%
Total opposition                44%  27%
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Note: Opposition includes Fatherland and Udar; Pro-presidential includes the Party of Regions and Communists. The May survey was conducted May 23-June 1 with 2,042 respondents and had a margin of error ±2.3%. The September survey was conducted September 1-18 with 2,024 respondents and had a margin of error ±2.2%.
Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology

Brad Wells: This poll is notable because it shows a drop in the ratings of both the previous leaders, Party of Regions and Fatherland, which could point to voter fatigue with these parties and their leaders. In particular, Fatherland’s loss of nearly half of its support since May (the last reported survey from KIIS) is shocking – their campaign has been consistent, but seems to be failing to convert undecided voters. Both the second-tier options Udar and Communist Part have, by contrast, held up fairly well. The difference between opposition parties Udar and Fatherland closed substantially, though the gap is within the survey’s margin of error. We look forward to further opinion polls from other organizations to back up these findings.