Ukraine 1H15 real GDP plunges 16%, officials estimate

Ukraine’s real GDP plunged 16.3% in 1H15, according to the estimates of the Economy Ministry, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency on Aug. 11. The ministry expects that second half will be much stronger, which will result in annual 2015 GDP of -8.9%. In 1Q15, Ukraine’s real GDP was -17.2% yoy.

Alexander Paraschiy: The Economy Ministry’s estimate is much weaker than our estimate of about a 14% decline in 1H15. If reality is close to what the ministry has estimated (the official stats for 1H15 will be disclosed only in mid-September), we will have to downgrade our 2015 GDP forecast, which is currently -7.9%.