Ukraine 2018 goods trade deficit widens 55%

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit reached USD 9.8 bln, or
a 54.5 % yoy surge, in 2018, the State Statistics Service stated in its
preliminary report on Feb. 14.  Imports of goods reached USD 57.1 bln,
advancing 15.2% yoy, while exports amounted to USD 47.3 bln, growing 9.4% yoy.

The major contributors to import growth were machinery
(20.7% yoy), energy (14.3% yoy) and metals (18.7% yoy). Export growth was
driven by ferrous metals (14.7% yoy), grains (11.4% yoy), and mineral products
(9.9% yoy).

Exports to the EU grew 15.0% yoy in 2018, outpacing EU
import growth of 11.5% yoy. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and
imports amounted to 42.6% and 40.6%, respectively.

In December alone, the goods trade deficit amounted to
USD 0.95 bln, enlarging 10.8% m/m. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted goods
trade deficit declined 19.5% m/m amid a 1.0% m/m drop in adjusted exports and a
4.3% m/m decline in adjusted imports.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: December’s
goods trade deficit met our estimate. The
provisional customs statistics promise a small goods trade deficit of USD 79.4
mln in January amid a significant month-to-month drop in imports. Lower imports
volumes in the beginning of the year are usual in Ukraine’s external trade
balance, and the first-quarter results might be misleading in extending them
for the rest of the year.

We expect the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to
UkrStat methodology) will swell to USD 11.5 bln, with import growth outpacing
export increases.