Ukraine 2020 goods trade deficit shrinks to USD 4.9 bln

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit in 2020 reached USD 4.9
bln dropping from USD 10.7 bln in the previous year, the State Statistics
Service reported Feb. 15. Goods imports reached USD 54.1 bln, declining 11.0%
yoy, while exports amounted to USD 49.2 bln, sliding 1.7% yoy.

Goods imports decline was mostly prompted by falling
imports of energy materials (-32.3% yoy), machinery (-13.3% yoy) and vehicles
(-6.8% yoy). At the same time, food imports advanced 13.5% yoy. The decline of
exports was mostly due to the drop in exports of ferrous metals (-12.0% yoy)
and grains (-2.2% yoy). Exports of mineral products advanced 9.6% yoy, food
exports grew 4.4% yoy, exports of chemicals added 4.6% yoy.

In December alone, the goods trade deficit swelled
59.9% m/m to USD 817 mln from USD 511 bln. The seasonally adjusted goods trade
deficit enlarged 7.0% m/m amid a 3.3% m/m increase in adjusted exports and 37%
m/m growth in adjusted imports.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Ukraine’s
goods trade deficit shrank significantly as the country’s imports were affected
by the coronavirus crisis more than exports in 2020. Ukraine benefited from
price decline for energy resources which had lasted for the most of the year.
Imports of machinery and vehicles declined amid plummeted demand for investment
goods.

At the same time, Ukraine’s export performance was
quite decent in a crisis year. The drop in world demand for Ukraine’s major
export goods (grains and ferrous metals) was mostly compensated by increased
exports of iron ore, chemicals and foods.

In 2021, goods trade deficit will enlarge as growth
of goods import will outpace export growth. We expect that the 2021 goods trade
deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) will swell to USD 8.3 bln.