Ukraine actively conducting military exercises in maritime zone

President Petro Poroshenko has led Ukraine’s Armed Forces
in continuing to conduct active military exercises in the country’s maritime
zone in recent weeks, assuring the public that Russia won’t be allowed to
occupy the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait. “We will ensure the fulfillment of
bilateral agreements and international conventions on seafaring, including the
Black and Azov seas,” Poroshenko said on Feb. 12 during a working visit to
Odesa, his press service reported. Three days earlier, the media reported that
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry will conduct four anti-aircraft exercises with
active firing this year in Ukraine’s maritime region, the first being in the
Kherson region this month. Recall in late January, Ukrainian fighter jets conducted training
exercises in the Azov Sea zone involving navy ships and border service agents.

This year’s antiaircraft trainings are in response to
Russia accumulating military hardware in Crimea, said Yuriy Stavskiy, the director
of anti-aircraft armies, pravda.com.ua reported in the Feb. 12 report. Indeed
the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Feb. 8 it will conduct tests of its
C-400 anti-aircraft missile systems in Crimea on simulated targets. The systems
have already been activated into combat positions, the statement said. Earlier
in the month, the Russian Black Sea Fleet announced training exercises in
Crimea involving 1,000 military personnel and about 50 units of military and
special hardware. The soldiers conducted firings “from all forms of rifle
armaments and anti-tank complexes,” the fleet said in a Feb. 4 statement.

Zenon Zawada: The
Ukrainian government has shown it hasn’t been intimidated by the Nov. 25
Russian attack on its navy, not just with its bold statements but also its
actions since then. The ongoing training exercises are important in order to
demonstrate to Russia that Ukraine – with Western support – will defend
maritime law and not allow any single country to control access to the Azov
Sea. At the same time, Poroshenko is well aware of the potential for a repeat
of the Nov. 25 incident by conducting active military exercises in the seas.
Such exercises could have been reduced to a minimum in order to avoid another
such incident from disrupting the elections.

In our view, the president is continuing to actively
conduct them not only as a demonstration to Russia of global fortitude against
its aggressive illegal acts, but also knowing that another armed conflict will
work to his advantage, whether mustering more U.S. support or serving as a
convenient pretext to disrupt the elections, which are not going in his favor.

The U.S. has already demonstrated that it will back
Ukraine, with the State Department announcing in late December an offer of USD
10 mln in aid to Ukraine’s navy (after three ships were detained and two dozen
crew were arrested). With so much tense activity, another clash in the seas is
inevitable in the long term and probable in the short term.