Ukraine aggregate state debt increases 0.8% in May

Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt rose 0.8%
m/m to USD 82.1 bln as of May 31, the Finance Ministry reported on June 25. State
domestic debt jumped 4.7% m/m to USD 33.1 bln, while the state foreign debt
slid 2.1% m/m to USD 39.3 bln. State-guaranteed debt inched up 0.3% m/m to USD
9.7 bln.

In UAH terms, overall state debt increased 0.6% m/m in
May to UAH 2,209 bln, or 55.6% of Ukraine’s GDP in 2019.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The higher
growth rate of state foreign debt in USD terms was due to 1.5% hryvnia
appreciation in May. June’s growth rate is certain to have jumped further given
the newly attracted debt from the IMF
(USD 2.1 bln) and European Union (EUR 500 mln).

At the same time, state domestic debt will have
declined around USD 0.2 bln as the amount of redeemed domestic debt will have exceeded
what had been sold at the domestic market during the month. With all these ins
and outs, Ukraine’s state debt will have increased by around USD 2.5 bln, or 3%
m/m in June.

We expect Ukraine’s aggregate debt (state and
state-guaranteed debt) will increase to USD 91.5 bln by end-2020 (vs. USD 84.4
bln in 2019).