Ukraine aggregate state debt increases 1.3% in April

Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt rose 1.3%
m/m to USD 81.4 bln as of Apr. 30, the Finance Ministry reported on May 25.
State domestic debt jumped 3.4% m/m to USD 31.6 bln, while the state foreign debt
slid 0.3% m/m to USD 40.2 bln. State-guaranteed debt climbed 2.0% m/m to USD
9.7 bln.

In UAH terms, overall state debt dropped 2.6% m/m in
April to UAH 2,196 bln, or 55.2% of Ukraine’s GDP in 2019.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
increase of state domestic debt in USD terms was due to 4.0% hryvnia
appreciation to UAH 26.97/USD as of Apr. 30.

In May, state foreign debt will have declined, given
the redemption of U.S.-guaranteed Eurobonds of USD 1 bln planned for May 29. At
the same time, state domestic debt will have risen around USD 1.7 bln as the
amount of newly attracted domestic debt will exceed redemptions during the
month. With all the ins and outs, Ukraine state debt is likely to have gained
around 1% m/m in May.

For 2020, Ukraine’s state debt will surge given the
needs in financing the ever-swelling budget
deficit amid corona-crisis
challenges. We expect Ukraine’s aggregate debt (state and state-guaranteed debt)
will increase to USD 91.5 bln by end-2020 (vs. USD 84.4 bln in 2019).