Ukraine aggregate state debt stays flat in July

Ukraine’s state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to
USD 85.0 bln as of July 31 without undergoing statistically significant
month-to changes, the Finance Ministry reported on Aug. 26. State foreign debt
jumped 2.8% m/m to USD 43.1 bln, while state domestic debt declined 4.0% m/m to
USD 31.7 bln. State-guaranteed debt rose 2.2% m/m to USD 10.2 bln.

In UAH terms, overall state debt increased 3.8% m/m in
July to UAH 2,355 bln, or 59.3% of Ukraine’s GDP in 2019.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Ukraine’s
foreign debt jump in July was fueled by the placement of international Eurobonds for USD 1.2 bln
(which is the net of newly issued bonds for USD 2.0 bln and the buy-back of
notes maturing in 2021 and 2022 for a total par value of USD 0.806 bln). At the
same time, state domestic debt declined as the amount of local bonds redeemed
during the month exceeded the receipts from local bonds placed in July. In
addition, a 3.6% hryvnia depreciation decreased the value of UAH-denominated
debt in USD terms.

The state debt will have declined slightly in August
as the amount of local bonds redeemed during the month (UAH 23.8 bln and USD
474 mln) exceeded the receipts from local bonds placed in August (UAH 16.9 bln
and USD 250 mln).

We expect Ukraine’s aggregate debt (state and
state-guaranteed) to increase to USD 91.5 bln by end-2020 (vs. USD 84.4 bln in
2019).