Ukraine anticipates 6% grain export growth in 2015/16 marketing year

Ukraine’s Agrarian Ministry projects grain exports will increase 5.7% to 36.8 mmt in the 2015/16 marketing year from 34.8 mmt in the 2014/15 marketing year, Minister Oleksiy Pavlenko tweeted on Aug. 25. Previously, the ministry projected 36.0 mmt in grain exports for this marketing year. Remarkably, for 2015 the grain harvest is expected by ministry to be somewhat worse than a year ago.  In particular, officials  anticipate crops havrvest falling at least 6.1% yoy in the calendar year 2015 down to 60 mmt from 63.9 mmt a year ago.

Alexander Paraschiy: The optimism of Ukrainian agri-officials looks encouraging against the backdrop of sliding grain prices on the global markets. Should the projection become fulfilled, Ukraine will save foreign currency in the next 12 months, which will boost its economic position. In the 2014/15 marketing year, grain exports generated USD 6.3 bln in foreign currency revenues. The grain price decline of about 20 percent promises to shave off about USD 1.5 bln from export proceeds in the next marketing year. Though, stronger grain exports in tonnage will offset export losses somewhat – we project nearly USD 5.3 bln in grain exports in 2015/16.