Ukraine budget revenue 12% below plan in 1Q20

Ukraine’s state budget stayed flat yoy at UAH 210.7
bln in 1Q20, which is 11.6% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally
reported on Apr. 2. Net tax revenue jumped 14.9% yoy to UAH 110.8 bln (5.6%
below plan) amid 5.9% yoy growth in gross tax revenue and a 13.1% yoy fall in
VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue plummeted 15.7% yoy to UAH 40.7 bln (23.3%
below plan).

Local budgets’ fiscal revenue improved 14.5% yoy to UAH
69.3 bln in 1Q20, which is 7.4% below plan. Social payments (pension and other
social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 16.6% yoy to UAH 69.4
bln.

In March alone, state budget revenue increased 2.4%
yoy to UAH 87.9 bln, which is 10.4% below plan. Net tax revenue increased 8.1%
yoy to UAH 51.3 bln (5.8% above plan) amid 3.1% yoy growth in gross tax revenue
and a 15.5% yoy fall in VAT reimbursement. Customs revenue declined 10.8% yoy
to UAH 24.6 bln (18.8% below plan).

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: By and
large, the picture with state budget collections in March was very similar to
that of February, which means that the quarantine measures introduced in the second half of the
month didn’t reach their full negative effect in terms of
budget revenue.

However, the negative effect of the lockdown is
likely to reveal itself in full in April, resulting in plunging state budget
revenue. Meanwhile, budget amendments have yet to be adopted by parliament, and
it’s not clear if the plans for April budget collections will be corrected to
account for the revenue drop.