Ukraine budget revenue jumps 14% in November

Ukraine’s general budget revenue jumped 13.7% yoy to
UAH 132.5 bln in November, speeding up from 8.5% yoy growth in October, the
State Treasury reported on Dec. 28. General budget expenditures increased 11.5%
yoy to UAH 137.4 bln, slowing from 27.2% yoy in the prior month. In particular,
state budget expenditures advanced 26.5% yoy, while local budget expenditures
declined 12.1% yoy. The budget deficit amounted to UAH 5.3 bln in November,
compared to a UAH 42.6 bln gap in October.

In 11M20, the general budget deficit amounted to UAH
94.7 bln (vs. a deficit of UAH 6.9 bln in 11M19).

Tax revenue climbed 9.6% yoy to UAH 117.8 bln in
November, slowing from 10.4% yoy growth in October. In particular, personal
income tax revenue increased 10.5% yoy (vs. 11.8% yoy growth in October). Net
VAT revenue jumped 36.5% yoy (vs. a 51.3% yoy surge in October), as VAT gross
revenue climbed 22.0% yoy and VAT reimbursement rose 10.9% yoy. Meanwhile,
enterprise profit tax proceeds declined 13.7% yoy (vs. a 40.3% yoy plunge in
October). Resource royalty payments gained 10.5% yoy (vs. a 14.1% yoy slide in
October).

Non-tax revenue surged 63.8% yoy to UAH 7.0 bln in
November (after declining 5.4% yoy in October). In particular, the revenue of budget-financed
entities doubled year-on-year. At the same time, administrative payments and
revenue from non-commercial activities fell 8.5% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Apparently,
the difficulties with raising new state debt was the major reason behind the
moderate budget deficit in November. The budget revenue in November was mostly
boosted due to additional effort put on proceeds from budget-financed entities.
Meanwhile, the growth of tax revenue slowed down and this might indicate that
the effects of piecemeal methods employed in previous months is wearing off.

The budget deficit will definitely skyrocket in
December, driven by high government borrowing during the month. We expect
Ukraine to conclude 2020 with a budget deficit of around UAH 200 bln.