Ukraine budget revenue rises 7% in 11M19, below plan

Ukraine’s 11M19 state budget revenue rose 6.7% yoy to
UAH 900 bln, which is 5.9% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally
reported on Dec. 2. Net tax revenue rose 14.8% yoy to UAH 411 bln (1.7% below
plan). Customs revenue declined 6.4% yoy to UAH 290 bln (11.0% below plan).

Local budgets’ fiscal revenue improved 16.0% yoy to
UAH 257 bln in 11M19, which is 2.2% above plan. Social payments (pension and
other social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 20.3% yoy to UAH
245 bln.

In November alone, Ukraine’s state budget revenue rose
7.3% yoy to UAH 89 bln, which is 8.6% yoy below plan. Net tax receipts advanced
14.1% yoy to UAH 52 bln, which is 10.0% below plan. In particular, general tax
revenue rose 6.9% yoy to UAH 63 bln, while VAT reimbursement fell 17.0% yoy to
UAH 11 bln. Customs revenue declined 21.1% yoy to UAH 27 bln, which is 1.3%
above plan.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
situation with budget collections worsened in November compared to October. Even with
declined VAT reimbursement, tax collection in November didn’t meet plan.

Lower-than-expected tax collections resulted from
industrial output dropping. Customs revenue decline was prompted by slowed
growth in imports, hryvnia appreciation and the miscoordination in the customs
service’s functioning, related to the new government’s attempts to reform it.

It looks like the 2020 state budget collections will
underperform by 6-7%. This means that a number of planned budget expenditures
will not be implemented.