Ukraine budget revenue rises 9% yoy in 1Q19, below plan

Ukraine’s 1Q19 state budget revenue rose 8.7% yoy to
UAH 193.6 bln, which is 4.9% below plan, the State Treasury provisionally reported
on Apr. 1. Net tax revenue increased 4.3% yoy to UAH 96.5 bln (7.8% below
plan). Customs revenue inched up 1.0% yoy to UAH 75.6 bln (9.5% below plan).

In March alone, Ukraine’s state budget revenue rose
4.4% yoy to UAH 85.7 bln, which is 10.0% yoy below plan. The weak growth of
budget revenue was mostly due to a 61.5% yoy drop under the line item of “other
ministries and government agencies”.

Net tax revenue in March increased 5.0% yoy to UAH 47.5
bln (2.3% below plan). In particular, general tax receipts increased 8.6%,
while VAT reimbursement surged 24.8% yoy. Customs revenue increased 8.2% yoy to
UAH 27.6 mln, which is 9.6% below plan.

Local fiscal revenue improved 17.6% yoy to UAH 62.3 bln
in 1Q19, underperforming plan by 3.5%. Social payments (pension and other
social fund contributions paid by employers) advanced 23.2% yoy to UAH 61.3
bln.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Budget
revenue growth slowed down in March, as customs revenue subsided once an
amnesty on EU-registered vehicles ended on Feb. 24. Meanwhile, regular budget
collections in March were not impressive. The growth of net tax revenue was
weak amid high VAT reimbursement to exporters. As in the two previous months,
custom revenue stays below plan.

The poor collections during three consecutive
months looks worrisome. Tax collection agencies are likely to intensify
pressure on taxpayers in order to catch up on lagging budget collections in the
nearest months.