Ukraine budget revenue swells 43% in July
1 September 2017
Ukraine’s general budget revenue swelled 43.4% yoy to
UAH 71.1 bln in July, slightly easing from 46.6% yoy growth in the prior month,
the State Treasury reported on Aug 30. Driving the growth was a 70% yoy jump in
VAT, UAH 5.0 bln in dividends from the NBU and 30% yoy growth in personal
income tax. In the meantime, rent on mineral extraction dropped 49% yoy.
Revenues slightly exceeded spending (UAH 70.0 bln), producing budget surplus.
For 7M17, general budget revenue grew 45.7% yoy.
The Treasury reported a UAH 52.8 bln (2.0% of GDP)
general budget surplus for 7M17: a UAH 27.0 bln surplus at the central budget
and UAH 25.8 bln surplus in the local budgets.
Alexander Paraschiy: A
substantial statistical effect of a low comparative base occurred in July. A
year ago, the fiscal service reimbursed record-high VAT to exporters (the
service stopped giving reimbursements in the previous month and returned debts
in July) in what translated into modest VAT collections through the month. This
effect is the key reason why VAT was reported booming in July 2017, accounting
for almost half of the reported budget revenue increase.
though somewhat slowing due to a higher comparative base. The trend is in line
with our initial expectations of easing budget revenue growth in 2H17, which
nonetheless should fulfill our projection of 19.2% growth for 2017. We expect
the deficit will be on the safe side, less than 3% of GDP.
