Ukraine C/A surplus narrows to USD 0.3 bln in June

Ukraine’s current account (C/A) surplus amounted to
USD 295 mln in June, declining from USD 673 mln in the prior month mostly due
to a deteriorated trade balance, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)
preliminarily reported on July 30. The goods trade deficit amounted to USD 328
mln (vs. a USD 166 mln surplus in May), while the surplus of trade in services
declined to USD 327 mln from USD 380 mln in May. The deficit of the primary
income balance shrank to USD 55 mln from USD 196 mln in the prior month. The
surplus of the secondary income balance increased to USD 351 mln from USD 323
mln.

 

In 1H21, the C/A surplus amounted to USD 0.4 bln (vs.
a USD 4.0 bln surplus in 1H21).

 

Goods exports surged 61% yoy in June (vs. 62% yoy
growth in May) to USD 4.9 bln. The growth was mostly driven by a surge in
exports of ferrous metals (doubling year-on-year) and mineral products (2.3x
yoy). In addition, food exports jumped 32% yoy, exports of chemicals jumped 30%
yoy, machinery exports advanced 24% yoy.

 

Goods imports jumped 36% yoy to USD 5.2 bln in June
(vs. 53% yoy growth in May). In particular, imports of machinery jumped 35%
yoy, imports of mineral products surged 63% yoy, chemical imports advanced 39%
yoy. Imports of foods added 15% yoy.

 

The financial account switched to a surplus of USD 457
mln from a deficit of USD 958 mln in May. In particular, the net inflow under
the operations of the government sector amounted to USD 759 mln. Meanwhile the
net outflow from the private sector amounted to USD 302 mln.

 

The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of payments amounted
to USD 753 mln in June (vs. a USD 280 mln deficit in May).

 

In 1H21, the surplus of Ukraine’s balance of payments
amounted to USD 0.3 bln (vs. a surplus of USD 1.2 bln in 1H20).

 

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The trends
in Ukraine’s external trade in June were similar to those in May. Enjoying an
incredibly favorable price situation at global markets, all Ukraine’s export
items show impressive results. Imports of mineral products are picking up amid
growing prices for energy resources.

 

According to our forecast, the C/A surplus will
amount USD 0.5 bln in 2021 (vs. a surplus of USD 5.2 bln in 2020).