Ukraine Cabinet prepares ultimatum to Rada, Minister says

Members of the Ukrainian Cabinet agreed to prepare a program and present it to the parliament on Feb. 16, Infrastructure Minister Andriy Pyvovarskiy said, according to a Feb. 9 report from the liga.net news site.At its meeting, the cabinet is going to finalize commitments that all branches of Ukrainian power should make to speed up reform, he said. Among the demands that Pyvovarskiy listed are fair salaries for state officers; the preparation of a new program of parliamentary coalition, wherein parliament’s obligation to enact reforms is clearly delineated; faster privatization and reform in tax administration. According to the Minister, the full list of conditions has to be approved by the Cabinet, and in the event that they are not satisfied by the parliament on Feb. 16, all ministers will resign.

In his TV interview on Feb. 7, Economy Minister Aivaras Abromavicius also stated that the government has to agree on a joint list of demands to Ukraine’s power brokers, which will allow the Cabinet to continue working on reforms.

Alexander Paraschiy: At this stage, it’s hard to predict the reaction of the parliamentary coalition to the ultimatum that the Cabinet is going to offer. Therefore, two scenarios are equally likely: (1) the resignation of the Cabinet and a new wave of political crisis, with possible early elections of the parliament; (2) the approval of the government’s program on the Cabinet’s conditions. Clearly, the first scenario won’t be beneficial for Ukraine in the short-term as the government will temporarily lose its access to international financial support, which could lead to a currency shock and deepen the financial crisis. At the same time, both scenarios could be beneficial for Ukraine’s future – either the current parliament becomes more cooperative and the reforms will speed up right now, or a new parliament will be elected, adding fresh blood to Ukraine’s reform efforts.