Ukraine civil unrest calms, negotiations set for next week

Civil unrest in Ukraine calmed on April 8. Police arrested 64 pro-Russian activists who took over the Kharkiv Oblast Council building, without inflicting injuries. The only hotbeds of activity remained the easternmost oblasts of Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk, where separatists controlled the local offices of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). In Luhansk, armed, masked separatists placed mines in the SBU headquarters and took about 60 hostages, most of which were released unharmed by morning, the SBU reported. In Donetsk, separatists retained control of the State Oblast Administration, which is the local representative organ of the Presidential Administration.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on April 8 that he reached an agreement with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to meet next week to discuss Ukraine’s political crisis. Also attending will be Ukrainian Acting Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton. They will discuss de-escalating the situation and constitutional reform in Ukraine, Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The takeover of state offices in eastern Ukraine were inspired by the Russian government’s subversive activity, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said in an April 8 statement. “Groups led by Russian intelligence agents are involved in the provocations,” the statement said. “The aggressive actions that threaten the lives and safety of Ukrainian citizens, the intensification of separatist forces and the participation in illegal acts by Russian citizens demonstrate the intention of fulfilling the second phase of an occupation of Ukraine,” the statement said.

Zenon Zawada: Separatist activity calming yesterday offers no reason to breathe easier. We can expect equally aggressive acts this weekend, possibly with the help of Russian agents, which reportedly had a plan to escalate the conflicts in most eastern regions last night and to create the pretext for an invasion by the Russian army.

We are not particularly optimistic about negotiations involving Russia and Ukraine, which are diametrically opposed: Russia is calling for federalizing half of Ukraine’s territory, which could result in their eventual annexation. The Ukrainian government wants to maintain a unitary state. There’s no middle ground so far.

Meanwhile, the agenda of the discussion as announced by Kerry does not look optimistic for the Ukrainian side. Instead of talking about a possible return of Crimea to Ukraine, they will discuss the progress of Ukraine’s constitutional reform, which should be solely an internal matter and marks a radical shift of focus in Ukraine-Russia relations. It also marks a very dangerous concession made by U.S. and EU diplomats to Russia, which encourages separatist activity in Ukraine’s regions beyond Crimea.