Ukraine coalition members are seeking to reshuffle Cabinet

The leader of the pro-presidential faction in the Ukrainian parliament (the Rada) Yuriy Lutsenko shared with journalists his view on possible changes in the Ukrainian government, delo.ua news site reported on Feb. 2. According to Lutsenko, the possible ways to reform the cabinet, which have to be discussed with the coalition are: (1) Dismissal of the cabinet and the appointment of a new one (the smaller coalition factions, Self-Reliance and Fatherland are insisting on this scenario, according to Lutsenko) or (2) a reshuffling of ministers without the formal dismissal of the entire cabinet. One day prior, the pro-presidential faction nominated its possible candidates for eight Cabinet positions during a meeting, which Lutsenko called  “just a discussion on who could enter the government”.

The same day, members of the Self-Reliance faction in the Rada announced they would have their own meeting to discuss the  possibility of exiting the coalition, the pravda.com.ua news site reported. The ultimate goal of the faction is to achieve the election of a new cabinet.

According to Ukrainian law, the procedure of the dismissal of a Cabinet consists of three stages: the collection of at least 150 MP votes (1/3 of total) to “consider the responsibility of the cabinet”; a report of the cabinet to the Rada; the adoption of a resolution on the dismissal of the cabinet by at least 226 votes (50%+1 of all MPs). The parliament cannot vote for the dismissal of the cabinet twice in one parliament session (the new session has just started, the next one will start in September). The Rada also cannot dismiss the cabinet within one year after the adoption of its program (the last program was adopted in December 2014).

Alexander Paraschiy: The current coalition in the Rada consists of four factions representing 263 MPs, with two minor factions, Self-Reliance and Fatherland, having 45 total MPs. The exit of both of them from the coalition will mean its split (at least 226 MPs are needed to form a coalition), and could lead to preliminary parliamentary elections (if a new coalition does not emerge). That outcome does not look desirable for the two biggest factions of the coalition, the one of the President and the other of the Prime Minister.

To save the collation, therefore, leading factions should consider the interests of smaller coalition members. In particular, they might have to agree on the dismissal of the cabinet and the election of a new one. On the other hand, most of the coalition members realize that it would be hard to find a new candidate for PM that would satisfy all of their interests. Therefore, PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk still has a lot of chances to retain his position, and both scenarios described by Lutsenko look probable. It also looks likely that extraordinary elections of the Rada will be held this year. We expect matters to become clearer over the course of this month.