Ukraine consumer inflation stays at 9.5% in June

Annual inflation in Ukraine amounted to 9.5% yoy in
June, staying unchanged from the previous month, the State Statistics Service
reported on July 9. Ukraine’s consumer prices inched up 0.2% m/m in June after
jumping 1.3% m/m in May.

Food prices slid 0.2% m/m in June after increasing
1.7% m/m May. In particular, the price for eggs dropped 16.0% m/m, prices for
fruits declined 2.8% m/m, vegetable prices slid 1.3% m/m, milk prices dropped
1.0% m/m. At the same time, prices for vegetable oil continued growing, adding
3.4%; bread prices increased 0.6% m/m.

Prices for clothing and footwear dropped 2.8% m/m
after sliding 0.6% m/m in May. Prices for transportation grew 1.0% m/m in June
(after increasing 0.7% in May), driven mostly by increased fares for railroad
and automobile passenger transportation. In addition, prices for alcohol and
tobacco increased 1.0% m/m.

Prices for housing and utility services inched up 0.4%
m/m (after jumping 3.9% m/m in May), driven by a 0.7% m/m jump in prices for
natural gas as well as increased prices for housing maintenance. Prices for
transportation grew 0.7% m/m in May after increasing 0.6% in April.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko:  The
seasonal increase in the supply of agricultural produce resulted in the monthly
deflation of food prices in June. In addition, a 1.3% monthly appreciation of
local currency helped to push down the prices for clothing and footwear.

Despite some moderation of consumer inflation in
June, we don’t see many chances for consumer inflation to go down to 8.0% YTD
in 2021, as we previously expected. Even with the probable monthly deflation in
June-August, consumer inflation is likely to land closer to 9% YTD in 2021, we
expect.