Ukraine consumer prices increase 1.7% m/m in October

Ukraine’s consumer prices increased 1.7% m/m in
October, mostly owing to food, clothing and transportation, the State
Statistics Service reported on Nov. 9. Annual inflation accelerated to 9.5% yoy
from 8.9% in September.

Food prices grew 1.4% m/m (after 1.6% m/m growth in
September), mostly due to a seasonal increase in the prices for vegetables
(8.8% m/m), bread (2.7% yoy), and milk (3.6% yoy). At the same time, prices for
fruits continued to decline, falling by 4.6% m/m. In addition, prices for sugar
dropped 2.3% m/m.

Prices for clothing and footwear added 2.6% m/m in
October (after surging 8.6% m/m in September). Prices for transportation
advanced 3.1% m/m (after 2.8 m/m in September) mostly due to a fuel price
surge. In addition, prices for alcohol and tobacco increased 2.3% m/m and
continued to adjust to a hiked excise duty.

Core inflation (the consumer basket excluding goods
and services with the most volatile prices) slowed to 1.3% m/m in October from
1.9% m/m in September. Annual core inflation declined to 6.9% yoy from 8.7%
yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: October
growth of consumer prices was mostly in line with the usual trends,
particularly seasonal price gains for food and clothing. At the same time,
rapidly growing transportation and alcohol and tobacco prices added some more
boost this year.

Meanwhile, slowing core inflation is a good sign.
Should this component stay in a low range, overall consumer inflation will be
restrained.

The updated forecast of Ukraine’s central bank sees 2018 consumer inflation at 10.1% YTD.