Ukraine court forbids rally to gather signatures for Customs Union

A Kyiv court ruled on September 2 to forbid the Communist Party of Ukraine from holding a September 8 rally in Kyiv to gather signatures to hold a referendum on Ukraine joining the Customs Union, reported the European Party of Ukraine on its website. The same ruling also forbid a representative from the Central Election Commission from attending the rally, a standard procedure when referenda campaigns are launched.

Zenon Zawada: A court ruling on such a politically sensitive decision couldn’t have been made without the blessing of the President Administration, we believe. Indeed, this decision is beneficial for the President Viktor Yanukovych and his ruling party, the Party of Regions, as it will neutralize the initiative of the Communists to mobilize Ukraine’s pro-Russian electorate, which overlaps both parties. We’re already seeing that a significant portion of Party of Regions’ voters are dissatisfied with the decision to choose the EU over the Customs Union, and the Communists are trying to mobilize them to undermine the Association Agreement.

Another tactic in trying to control the fallout is President Yanukovych’s announcement on August 30 that he will organize a referendum for the public to decide on Ukraine’s geopolitical course. Typically, this would be a recipe for destabilization in Ukraine with potentially dangerous consequences. However, we see Yanukovych’s call for a referendum as a warning to the Communists that he can seize control of the initiative and ensure that the referendum produces the result that the government needs, using such levers as government resources. In this situation, ironically, Yanukovych’s authoritarian streak would work to the advantage of the EU.

With such government-imposed hurdles, we expect Ukraine’s pro-Russian forces will have difficulty pulling off a referendum. With the exception of a few radical organizations, the pro-Russian electorate is largely passive, mostly older in age, and has few civic and non-governmental organizations, all of which means they won’t be able to mount much resistance to the government’s EU integration.