Ukraine diplomats offer conflicting narratives of Donbas ceasefire

Russian-backed forces in Donbas have violated the
ceasefire regime 70 times since it was launched on July 27, including 16
incidents of illegal drone flights and 17 incidents of reinforcements of
armaments and positions, Ihor Lossovskiy, a Ukrainian diplomat based in Vienna,
told the security cooperation forum of the OSCE on Sept. 16. Among the
reinforced positions was an underground defensive base in the Avdiyivka
district of Donetsk, he said, as reported by the Ukrinform news agency. New
trenches have been dug in the outskirts of Shyroka Balka in the Donetsk region,
while offensive positions were reinforced between Sept. 2 and 9 in the
outskirts of Donetsk itself. The shooting violations involved grenade launchers
and high-caliber machine guns, he said, presenting evidence of the various
violations. Lossovskiy is Ukraine’s permanent representative to international
organizations in Vienna.

All sides at the Sept. 16 meeting of the Trilateral
Contact Group reaffirmed the upholding of the all-encompassing ceasefire regime
in Donbas despite provocations, the President’s Office of Ukraine announced on
its website that day. The Ukrainian side in the talks, led by Leonid Kravchuk,
called upon all sides to use exhaustive measures to maintain the ceasefire, the
statement said. The sides also made preparations for the latest round of an
“all for all” prisoner exchange, and discussed the need to allow full and
unconditional access to Red Cross workers to all prisoners. Holding local
elections in occupied Donbas was not discussed, the statement said, but other
possibilities for local self-governance were.

Ceasefire violations by Russian-backed forces were
reported on a daily basis this week by the Joint Forces Operation press
service. Most recently on the early morning of Sept. 18, provocative fire from
a grenade launcher was reported in the vicinity of Vodiane in the Donetsk
region. On Sept. 17, rifle fire intended to provoke was reported in the
vicinity of Novohryhorivka in the Donetsk region. On Sept. 16, rifle fire
intended to provoke was reported near Vodiane, while provocative fire from a
grenade launcher was reported in the vicinity of Katerynivka in the Donetsk
region. In addition, Oleksiy Reznikov, the deputy head of the Ukrainian
delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group, said on Sept. 18 that
Russian-backed forces deliberately disrupted a planned OSCE inspection on Sept.
10 of the Ukrainian-controlled territory of Shumy in the Donetsk region because
they knew that evidence of their ceasefire violations would have been
confirmed.

Zenon Zawada: The Zelensky
administration is essentially inviting the public to “pick your truth” on
Donbas ceasefire narratives in this postmodern political landscape. While
dispatching its Vienna diplomat to complain of scores of ceasefire violations
by Russian-backed forces, it is simultaneously assuring the Ukrainian public
that the July 27 ceasefire is a success. We believe the doublespeak is being
adopted to boost the prospects of pro-presidential People’s Servant party in
the local elections scheduled for late October. The more the public thinks
Zelensky is successful in securing peace, the more it will support his
political party, particularly in the Russophile southeastern regions.

As to whether this strategy is effective, a poll was
published on Sept. 17 indicating that 16.0% of the ballots to be cast on Oct.
25 will be for The People’s Servant party, compared to 11.9% for the Opposition
Platform For Life party and 11.3% for the European Solidarity party. So while
the People’s Servant has lost much of its popularity since last year’s
landslide, the public still views Zelensky as having the best approach in
dealing with Russian aggression. And apparently, enough poorly informed members
of the public believe the deception that the ceasefire is a success.

It’s worth mentioning that The People’s Servant
parliamentary faction decided on Sept. 17 not to hold its previously announced
meeting to discuss a registered proposal to amend the local election law to
arrange for voting in Donbas on Oct. 25. The official reason was an apparent
illness suffered by Oleksiy Reznikov, the first deputy head to the Trilateral
Contact Group. We would like to think that this is a mere pretext for the
faction’s leaders to abandon such a dangerous idea to even consider. But considering
just how eager Zelensky and Yermak have been to offer concessions to the
Russians, it could very well have been an illness that merely postpones such a
discussion.