Ukraine-EU Association requires Tymoshenko’s release, EU ministers say

Several ministers of the EU Foreign Affairs Council said they won’t vote in favor of signing the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement at the Council’s October 21 meeting if by then the Ukrainian government doesn’t take the initiative to arrange for the release for imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper reported on September 20, citing high-ranking EU sources. They dismissed Ukrainian media reports that the Associaton pact – scheduled to be signed at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius in November 28-29 – won’t necessarily depend on Tymoshenko’s release from prison.

“The European Court of Human Rights confirmed that Yulia Tymoshenko ended up in prison unlawfully,” said Elmar Brok, chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs. “Moreover, she’s the leader of a political force that is part of the family of the European People’s Party, members of which include (German Chancellor) Angela Merkel and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. Is it worth expecting that the agreement will be signed if their ally is illegally thrown behind bars? Believe me, that would be very difficult. We understand how important it is to sign the Association Agreement in a complicated situation related to Russia’s influence, but Ukrainians should give us the ability to sign it,” he said.

Ukraine’s parliament approved on September 19 three bills necessary for signing the Association Agreement. They include a law on guaranteeing the fulfillment of judicial verdicts, amendments to the law on customs tariffs and a law on introducing constitutional amendments that expands the authority of the government’s Accounting Office. EU officials are satisfied with Ukrainian efforts this month to approve legislation that satisfies Association requirements, Kommersant reported. “Everything looked bad at the beginning of the year, but Ukraine started to work in the last months,” a high-ranking European Internal Affairs Service official said anonymously. “We are rapidly nearing the moment when the glass will be half-full, as the well-known saying says. There’s the impression that tangible progress will be achieved in all criteria, except for the Tymoshenko matter.”

Zenon Zawada: We are seeing the latest round of saber-rattling in comments from the EU leaders on the Tymoshenko situation, which is their response to saber-rattling from the administration of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

We still maintain our position that Tymoshenko’s release has a 50/50 likelihood. Yet recent comments made by EU officials, as well as recent actions by the Ukrainian government – including the intensified pace of ratification of the necessary legislation – lead us to believe that a solution will be found to ensure the signing of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. We don’t expect the players involved will allow a highly symbolic and historic geopolitical moment to slip through their fingers.

We believe Tymoshenko’s release from prison doesn’t have to occur in time for the signing. In order to buy time, it could be arranged for during the ratification process in the months following the agreement’s signing, with certain EU member-states warning that their respective parliaments won’t vote to ratify if she isn’t released. Yet we also don’t rule out a last-minute solution before the signing that enables Tymoshenko to gain medical treatment abroad.