10 February 2014
EuroMaidan leaders called for the creation of Self-Defense brigades through the nation on Feb. 10 at their tenth weekly meeting on Kyiv’s Independence Square. “The Maidan Self-Defense is a guard that the government fears, mainly. And that guard should be everywhere in order to defend the citizens of Ukraine,” said Oleksandr Turchynov, the deputy chair of the Fatherland party and righthand man to imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
The EuroMaidan is preparing for a possible violent crackdown once the amnesty legislation –which involves the opposition shutting down the protest in exchange for the release of prisoners – expires on Feb. 17. Last week, local governments in eastern Ukrainian strongholds of Kharkiv and Donetsk began their own citizen squads in the eastern regions. “If earlier they used tear gas, water cannons, grenades, cartridges, killed and stormed crowds, now they’ve switched to provocation, intimidation and information wars,” said Serhiy Pashynskiy, the deputy director of the National Resistance Headquarters.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on Feb. 9 it will impose on all of Ukraine’s territory a state of heightened anti-terrorist preparedness, citing threats of explosions and takeover of government buildings. The SBU reported receiving information recently on mines planted in seven airports, several rail and bus stations, atomic and hydroelectric plants, pipelines and several other sites. The agency didn’t state the period during which the threats were reported. The SBU also is disturbed by the blocking of state executive organs, calls for seizing sites where large amounts of armaments are stored, as well as Feb. 7 airplane incident involving a drunk passenger. The SBU Citizens Council supported the measures, calling upon their fellow citizens to refrain from unlawful appeals.
The two leading opposition parties, Fatherland and the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (UDAR), have made public their drafts for a new Constitution, which they prepared separately and differ on numerous points. As it turns out, the UDAR draft calls for leaving significant authority with the president just as the opposition has been calling for a return to the parliamentary-presidential governmental model.
Zenon Zawada: Any objective observation of the situation leads to the conclusion that the conflict is only sharpening. President Viktor Yanukovych has been out of the public spotlight since Feb. 5, when he officially designated as Acting Prime Minister Serhiy Arbuzov, the first deputy prime minister. He was spotted by television cameras at the Olympics opening ceremony in Sochi but not in the company of Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he certainly met. Meanwhile, Yanukovych spent last week dismissing state officials who have been too soft on the EuroMaidan and appointing new regional SBU directors.
Meanwhile, the opposition leaders are behaving as though they have all the time in the world to resolve the crisis, drafting differing constitutions which would have to undergo many rounds of negotiations. Their proposed reforms go beyond the simple maneuver of restoring the 2004 constitutional amendments. It implies that they intend to deal with Yanukovych until the 2015 presidential elections, which few people have trust in. It’s not clear whether citizens are willing to support their brigades and the central protest for another year until the elections.
UDAR’s draft of the constitution also reveals the party’s plans for its leader, Vitali Klitschko, to become the next president through the 2015 presidential elections. Otherwise, its lawyers would not be setting aside significant authority for the president. Unfortunately, plans for a 2015 election being made by opposition and Western leaders could very well be undermined by Yanukovych and Russia. The political opposition is clearly incapable of coordinated action and we expect the Yanukovych administration to exploit this weakness even further.