Ukraine expects to receive USD 3 bln p.a. from Russian gas transit till 2024
26 December 2019
Ukraine’s Energy Minister Oleksiy Orzhel expects that
Ukraine will receive USD 3 bln annually from the transit of Russian gas in
2020-2024, he wrote on the epravda.com.ua news site on Dec. 24. “In the
five-year perspective, we will receive about USD 18 bln, including USD 3 bln in
cash already this year,” Orzhel said, referring to the Stockholm court
award against Gazprom. “And all this without conditions requiring the purchase
of Russian gas,” he wrote, likely referring to the advantage of the latest
agreement over the 10-year deal that Ukraine had to sign in 2009.
With his statement, Orzhel created some intrigue when
mentioning that Gazprom is an “unpredictable negotiating party,”
meaning that the protocol signed on Dec. 20 does not necessarily mean a gas
transit deal will be signed. He does not rule out that the Russian side will
“jump off” the deal at the last minute, but added that it will be Gazprom that
will suffer a loss in reputation in such an event.
Gazprom and Naftogaz will meet in Austria today to continue
talks on the new transit deal, epradva.com.ua reported. Naftogaz CEO Yuriy
Vitrenko expressed his hope that the contract will be signed on Dec. 27, adding
that the talks may continue on the weekend.
Recall, based on protocol signed on Dec. 20, the
Ukrainian and Russian sides agreed to conclude a new five-year gas transit
contract by the end of 2019. As a part of the deal, Gazprom agreed to pay about
USD 3 bln court award by Dec. 29, while Naftogaz agreed to drop all its other
court claims related to the 2009 contract.
Alexander Paraschiy: If the transit deal between Gazprom and Naftogaz is signed based on
the parameters outlined by Orzhel, Ukraine will keep its gas transit revenue at
about the levels seen in the previous couple of years. This would be a very
positive outcome. At the same time, we fully agree with Orzhel that we need to
wait until a final transit deal is signed. Nonetheless, we see the likelihood
of the deal as better than 50%.
