Ukraine external goods trade balances out in January

Ukraine’s external goods trade switched to an insignificant
surplus of USD 26 mln in January from a USD 817 mln deficit in December, the
State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on March 17.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade registered a deficit of USD 602 mln (vs. a
USD 511 mln deficit in December) amid a 1.9% m/m decline in adjusted exports
and a 0.1% m/m increase in adjusted imports.

Goods exports declined 5.5% yoy in January to USD 3.9
bln (vs. 18.8% yoy growth in December). The decline was mostly driven by
dropping exports of grains (-41.0% yoy) and foods (-22.0% yoy). At the same
time, exports of mineral products surged 45.4% yoy, exports of ferrous metals
advanced 4.5% yoy, machinery exports picked up 3.9%.

Goods imports fell 5.2% yoy to USD 3.9 bln in December
(vs. 4.8% yoy growth in December). In particular, imports of energy products
dropped 16.4% yoy and imports of vehicles dropped 10.2% yoy. At the same time,
imports of chemicals advanced 1.8% yoy; machinery imports picked up 1.4% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The significant
fluctuations in external trade volume is one more proof that Ukraine’s economy
remains very weak. Bumpy exports seem not to be a problem while imports remain
low. But the situation will not look that cloudless as the county will face the
need to import more energy resources at higher prices.

In 2021, the goods trade deficit will enlarge as
the growth of goods imports will outpace export growth. We expect that the 2021
goods trade deficit (according to UkrStat methodology) will swell to USD 8.3 bln
(from USD 4.9 bln in 2020).