Ukraine external goods trade balances out in May

Ukraine’s external goods trade balanced out in May,
showing an insignificant surplus of USD 44 mln (vs. a USD 441 mln surplus in
April), the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published
on July 15. The seasonally adjusted goods trade balance reached a USD 433 mln
deficit (vs. a USD 287 mln surplus in April) amid a 20.1% m/m decline in
adjusted exports and a 2.4% m/m slide in adjusted imports.

Goods exports fell 24.1% yoy in May to USD 3.4 bln
(vs. a 6.2% yoy drop in April). The decline was mostly driven by falling
exports of ferrous metals (-32.3% yoy), mineral products (-36.1% yoy) and
grains (-26.4% yoy).  At the same time, exports of food oils and fats
jumped 11.9% yoy.

Goods imports plummeted 33.1% yoy to USD 3.4 bln in
May (vs. a 27.4% yoy drop in April). In particular, imports of energy products
plunged 55.6% yoy, machinery imports decreased 27.6% yoy, and imports of
chemicals dropped 34.5% yoy.

In 5M20, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 0.6
bln (vs. USD 2.7 bln in 5M19). Goods exports slid 6.5% yoy, while goods imports
dropped 14.5% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko:  As we expected, dropping
imports outpaced the decline in exports in May. However, the acceleration in
declining exports was still significant (after growth in previous months), and
this restrained further improvement of the trade balance. We attribute the
exports drop to falling external demand and the logistical difficulties related
to the coronavirus pandemic restrictions, both in Ukraine and its trading
partners.

Ukraine’s external trade will remain sluggish in June,
but we are likely to see less severe drops both in imports and exports, as the
bleakest period of the corona crisis seems to be over for Ukraine’s major
trading partners. Most likely, the volumes of goods imports and exports will be
at similar levels.