Ukraine foreign debt rises to 76.9% of GDP in 1Q13
20 June 2013
Ukraine’s gross external debt increased 0.9% (USD 1.2 bln) in 1Q13 to reach USD 136.3 bln, or 76.9% of GDP as of April 1, according to a June 19 statement by the National Bank of Ukraine. Short-term external debt even declined 0.2% to USD 62.1 bln, including USD 27.9 bln in current portion of long-term debt.
Alexander Paraschiy: Short-term trade loans (+USD 1.3 bln) and long-term loans to the non-financial private sector (+USD 1.0 bln) were the key sources of external debt growth in 1Q13. At the same time, state foreign debt was almost flat in the quarter (up just USD 162 mln) due to a USD 0.8 bln IMF loan redemption, which offset a USD 1.0 bln Eurobonds placement through the quarter. What’s more, NBU debt declined USD 845 mln, in line with the IMF debt redemption in 1Q13.
Though the government was successful in raising money from abroad at the year’s start, the changing perception of QE3 prospects casts doubt on the ability of Ukrainian authorities and businesses to increase their external debt. Against this backdrop, we have concerns that nominal external debt will increase over the coming quarters, unless the IMF steps in at some stage.
