Ukraine GDP drop slows to 5.2% in 10M20, ministry estimates

Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 5.2% yoy in 10M20,
improving from a 5.5% yoy decline in 9M20, according to estimates published on
Dec. 9 by the Ministry of Economic Development. The estimates are based on the
General Production Index (GPI), which takes into account manufacturing results
during the period.

In 10M20, GPI dropped 6.0% yoy, improving from a 6.2%
yoy decline in 9M20, the ministry estimated. In October, the trends improved in
transportation, trade, and construction. At the same time, the decline in
agriculture remains deep, and production in most industrial sectors remains
depressed.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The decline of Ukraine’s economy is slowing down. We expect GDP in
4Q20 to decline 2.2% yoy (vs. 3.6% yoy in 3Q20). Ukraine’s GDP will conclude
the year at around a 4.6% yoy drop (vs. 3.2% yoy growth in 2019), according to
our forecast.