Ukraine GDP drops 2.8% in 2M21, ministry estimates
13 April 2021
Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 2.8% yoy in 2M21,
deteriorating from a 2.6% yoy decline in January 2021, according to estimates
published on April 10 by the Ministry of Economic Development. The estimates
are based on the General Production Index (GPI), which takes into account
manufacturing results during the period.
In 2M21, the GPI decline accelerated to 4.2% yoy (from
4.0% in January 2021), the ministry estimated. In particular, the negative
trend was reinforced in industry, transportation and agriculture. Meanwhile,
the growth in trade continued.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Ukraine’s
GDP results continue to disappoint. The reinforced decline in February despite
a low comparative base from the previous year means that Ukraine’s output
remains at its lows. We don’t see any chances for the economy to improve in
March given the reinforcement of quarantine restrictions which were introduced
in most Ukraine’s regions in the second half of the month.
We expect Ukraine’s GDP to increase 4.1% yoy in
2021 (vs. a 4.0% yoy decline in 2020).
