Ukraine GDP flat yoy in 2013
31 January 2014
Ukraine’s GDP was unchanged yoy in 2013, according to state statistics released on Jan. 30. For 9M13, GDP had declined 1.2% yoy and it took a strong fourth quarter of 3.7% GDP growth yoy to improve the year-end outcome. Nominal GDP was reported at UAH 1,444.6 bln, only UAH 35 bln more than a year ago.
Alexander Paraschiy: The strong grain harvest, and in particular a 36.3% yoy boost in crops collection in 2013, saved Ukraine’s GDP from finishing in the red in 2013. Still Ukraine’s economic core, industrial production, declined 4.7% yoy in 2013, confirming that the economy is in fact in poor condition.
We project 1.0% GDP growth for 2014 though we do not see much improvement in external demand so far, even though any grain harvest growth is unlikely this year. Our forecast is based on the Dec. 17 deal reached between the Russian and Ukrainian governments for better access to the Russian market and discounts in the natural gas price. Yet this source of growth may vanish given the Russian government’s decision on Jan. 29 to freeze its USD 12 bln bond-buying program and gas discounts.
