Ukraine GDP inches up 0.1% in 1Q16, UkrStat estimates

Ukraine’s GDP inched up 0.1% yoy in 1Q16, according to a State Statistics Service provisional estimate released on May 16.  Previously, Vice Prime Minister Stepan Kubiv, who also serves as economy minister, stated that he anticipated 2% GDP growth in 2016. The IMF projects 1.5% GDP growth this year.  

Alexander Paraschiy: The 1Q16 preliminary result is better than we projected, owing to industrial recovery (+3.7% yoy in 1Q16) fueled by strengthening resource prices at the global markets. Faster private consumption (retail trade grew 3.6% yoy in 1Q16) also contributed to the trend. We expect this positive tendency to maintain itself throughout the year, helped by a low comparative base. At the same time, in light of the currently sliding resource prices, we can hardly anticipate substantial economic acceleration. Against the backdrop of positive 1Q16 start we revise our GDP forecast up to 0.9% yoy in 2016 vs. 0.6% estimated previously.