Ukraine GDP jumps 5.9% in 4Q21, UkrStat estimates
7 February 2022
Ukraine’s 4Q21 real GDP increased 5.9% yoy,
accelerating from 2.7% yoy growth in 3Q21, according to the preliminary estimates
by the State Statistics Service released on Feb. 4. The seasonally adjusted GDP
increased 1.8% qoq in 4Q21.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko: Accelerated
GDP growth in 4Q21 was expected, given the incredibly high result in
agriculture amid record-high grain crop. The surge in agriculture helped to
compensate for bad performance in the manufacturing sector.
With this result of 4Q21, we estimate Ukraine’s GDP
growth at 3.3% yoy in 2021, which is a little better than our previous
assessment of 3.2% yoy. It implies Ukraine will be due to pay its regular
payment under GDP warrants (UKRAIN 2040) equal to about 2% of the warrants’
face value in May 2023 (no payments due in May 2022).
We expect Ukraine’s economy to grow 2.8% yoy in
2022. The output in agriculture is not likely to outdo the lucky result of
2021, while manufacturing is unlikely to demonstrate a break-through.
