Ukraine goods trade balance switches to deficit in September

Ukraine’s goods trade balance switched to a deficit of
USD 254 mln in September from a surplus of USD 140 mln in August, the State
Statistics Service announced in a preliminary report on Nov. 15. The seasonally
adjusted goods balance was a surplus of USD 7 mln (vs. a USD 95 mln deficit in
August) amid 2.1% m/m growth of adjusted exports and a 0.4% m/m increase in adjusted
imports.

Goods exports jumped 53% yoy in September to USD 6.40
bln (vs. a 49% yoy increase in August). The accelerated growth was mostly
driven by exports of ferrous metals (2.4x year-on-year) and crop products (up
72% yoy).

Goods imports increased 41% yoy to USD 6.65 bln in
September (vs. 37% yoy growth in August). The major contributors to the
accelerated growth included energy products (2.5x year-on-year) and chemicals
(up 50% yoy).

In 9M21, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 2.0
bln (vs. a deficit of USD 3.2 bln in 9M20); goods exports increased 38.2% yoy
and imports jumped 31.9% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The slower
growth in exports of mineral products (mainly caused by lower global prices for
iron ore) was replaced by the accelerated growth of crop exports. The growth of
imports is maintained by the ongoing increase of energy prices.

We expect the goods trade deficit to amount to USD
4.5 bln in 2021 (vs. a deficit of USD 5.1 bln in 2020).