Ukraine goods trade deficit enlarges to USD 0.5 bln in July

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit enlarged to USD 525 mln
in July from USD 244 mln in June, the State Statistics Service announced in a
preliminary report on Sept. 14. The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit
amounted to USD 72 mln (vs. a USD 22 mln deficit in June) amid a 3.1% m/m
growth of adjusted exports and a 4.1% m/m increase in adjusted imports.

Goods exports jumped 51% yoy in July to USD 5.60 bln
(vs. a 57% yoy increase in June). The accelerated growth was mostly driven by
exports of ferrous metals and mineral products (both increased 2.3 times
year-on-year).

Goods imports increased 35% yoy to USD 6.13 bln in
July (vs. 37% yoy growth in June). The major contributors to the accelerated
growth included energy products (almost doubled year-on-year), vehicles (+40%
yoy) and chemicals (+37% yoy).

In 7M21, the goods trade deficit amounted to USD 1.7 bln
(vs. a deficit of USD 2.3 bln in 7M20); goods exports increased 33.4% yoy and
imports jumped 28.6% yoy.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
incredibly favorable period of high prices for Ukraine’s major export items is
extending, keeping the growth rate of goods exports higher than that of
imports. Meanwhile, goods imports are prompted by quickly growing energy
prices.

The growth of the goods trade deficit will accelerate
through the end of the year, as export growth inevitably will drop while the
imports growth will stay strong amid growing energy prices and the demand for
other imports will be spurred by economic growth. We expect that the goods
trade deficit in 2021 will be close to the deficit of the previous year (USD
5.1 bln).