Ukraine goods trade deficit enlarges to USD 1.2 bln in September

Ukraine’s goods trade deficit reached USD 1.2 bln in
September, enlarging from USD 0.9 bln in August, the State Statistics Service said
in its preliminary report on Nov. 14. The seasonally adjusted goods trade
deficit amounted to USD 0.80 bln (shrinking slightly from a USD 0.88 bln
deficit in August) amid a 0.4% m/m drop in adjusted exports and 1.8% m/m
decline in adjusted imports.

In September, goods exports swelled 11.6% yoy to USD
4.1 bln (vs. a 6.2% yoy increase in August). In particular, grain exports
jumped 45.6% yoy (vs. a 30.6% yoy jump in August). In addition, mineral product
exports increased 11.9% yoy (vs. 30.6% yoy growth in September). In addition,
machinery exports jumped 13.2% yoy (vs. a 5.6% yoy increase in August). At the
same time, export of ferrous metals dropped 13.3% yoy (vs. a 14.6% yoy decline
in August).

Goods imports grew 1.6% yoy to USD 5.3 bln in September
(vs. 6.1% yoy growth in August). Weak growth in exports was due to a 23.4% yoy
decline in the value of exported energy products (vs. a 11.6% yoy decline in
August). Machinery imports slowed to 8.8% yoy growth in September (from 21.8%
yoy growth in August). Meanwhile, import of road vehicles and aircraft rose
27.8% yoy (vs. 26.3% yoy in August).

In 9M19, the merchandise trade deficit reached USD 7.1
bln, swelling 8.4% yoy. Goods exports advanced 7.4% yoy to USD 37.1 bln. Meanwhile,
goods imports rose 7.5% yoy to USD 44.2 bln.

Exports to the EU increased 6.8% yoy in 9M19, while EU
imports advanced 8.3% yoy. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports
amounted to 42.1% and 41.5%, respectively.

Evgeniya Akhtyrko: The
significant decline of prices for energy products resulted in lower value of
energy imports. This factor helped to keep the growth of the merchandise
deficit in moderation.

The provisional customs statistics released this month
promise that October’s goods trade deficit will enlarge to around USD 1.3 bln,
mostly due to the higher value of imports.

We expect the 2019 goods trade deficit (according
to UkrStat methodology) to swell to USD 11.5 bln (from USD 9.9 bln in 2018).