Ukraine goods trade deficit narrows to USD 2.0 bln in 1Q13

Ukraine’s 1Q13 merchandise trade deficit reached USD 2.0 bln, which is 31.7% less than a year ago (USD  2.9 bln in 1Q12), according to state statistics released on May 16.  Exports declined 1.5% yoy while imports dropped 6.2% yoy. 

Alexander Paraschiy: An energy imports decline of 26.2% yoy drove the trade balance improvement at the year’s start.  Yet we do not expect this tendency to extend beyond 1H13. Energy Minister Eduard Stavytskiy stated recently that Ukraine will import at least 30 bcm of natural gas, which means that the trade balance will reflect an increase in energy imports further in the year. Thus, we still project the trade deficit at USD 16.0 bln (UkrStat methodology) and USD 20.6 bln (NBU methodology) by the year’s end.